It is back! 2023 will mark the return of international baseball's premier competition, the World Baseball Classic. It was supposed to be held in 2021 with qualifiers happening the year before but you know what scuttled those plans. The tournament will look a little different this time around. There will be twenty teams as opposed to sixteen. There will also be two qualifiers of six teams apiece with two berths available in each pool to the big dance. Most importantly though, we are already seeing that there will be quite a few more superstars than in past competitions where most superstars have opted out for one reason or another. Vlad, Goldy, Mookie, Mike Trout, Jose Altuve and Bryce Harper are #ALLIN. More will surely be #ALLIN over the coming months.
As qualifiers approach however, let us take the time to examine the teams ahead of the journey of these twelve countries to be in baseball's biggest international competition.
Pool A
Participants: Germany, Czech Republic, Great Britain, France, South Africa, Spain
Venue: Regensburg, Germany
For the second time, Regensburg will play host to WBC qualifiers. The qualifiers will run from September 16-21 and fill two of the four open spots for next year's main tournament. My rankings are below with a brief overview of each team to follow to add context to my predicted standings at the end of this qualifier.
Spain (Simply the strongest team in the pool but the Czechs and Germans can shock them)
Czech Republic (A fast improving baseball program on the verge of a breakout)
Germany (Toss up between them and the Czechs but I think the hosts miss out unfortunately)
Great Britain (Improving but still tangibly weaker than the major powers of Europe)
France (Well coached but lack depth and/or elite game changing players)
South Africa (Lack of regular competition and depth will show)
Germany
A solid team in the European context, the hosts boast eight European Championship medals (1 silver, 7 bronze) and current MLB talent Max Kepler. Kepler won't be available however for the qualifier. The German team will be composed mainly of players from the local Bundesliga with a few players in American affiliated ball mixed in.
They are coming off a less than inspiring 2021 EBC tournament where they were upset by Croatia and took a rather shabby loss to Spain (15-2) before salvaging a result versus France to keep their spot in the A tier of European teams. They had a good 2019 EBC though and encouraging results at U23 level that suggest the future of German baseball is bright.
Germany does have a realistic chance at reaching the WBC for the first time. That said, they are not favorites. If they can get the KBO's Aaron Altherr to play, their offense would get a nice boost but pitching will have to be on point especially against Spain and Czech Republic which look like the toughest teams on paper. That said, Germany are at home and they do have players who have good track records in European and Bundesliga competition like Cardoso, Brenk, Amon and Schmidt. They may also be able to count on former MLB catcher Bruce Maxwell if he chooses to play. Pitching is a bit sketchy but they have arms with high K rates available to them but the pitching staff is potentially a liability.
I believe Germany will either just miss out by finishing third or sneak into that second spot. They are better on paper than Britain, France and South Africa but most likely weaker than Spain and the Czech team is in my esteem the sleeping giant of European baseball so that game is very much a toss up. They can do it though. If Germany comes in hot, it can be done, especially on home turf and definitely their chances are better if they manage to enlist former MLB players Maxwell and Altherr.
Czech Republic
I just referred to the Czechs as the sleeping giant of European baseball. The reason for this is that the Czechs have made massive strides in their game in the last decade. There are multiple Czech players making their way into American collegiate ball or even affiliated pro ball. They have never won a European medal or reached the Olympics or WBC but I believe these barriers will fall soon enough.
Currently, Martin Červenka has reached AAA and while he has not hit well at that level, he has shown he can handle a pitching staff, no small luxury in European ball where pitching can be suspect. MLB veteran Eric Sogard is also eligible to represent and having his glove work would help immensely. The Czech Extraliga is also one of the better European pro leagues and it is expected to supply the bulk of the squad. D1 college players will likely be involved also.
The Czechs have consistently put up strong results in European competition as well as Olympic qualifiers. They have finished no worse than 5th at any Euros since 2012 and a medal is only a matter of time. They also were the only ones to beat Israel on their way to qualifying to Tokyo 2020. They also beat the Spanish which they may need to do again to reach the WBC in 2023. They also boast wins over the fearsome Dutch team in European competition and even in losses this team will make you work. They may lose but they are never run out of the ballpark. Their U23 squad also beat Mexico at the U23 BWC so the up and comers are very capable as well.
The Czechs have a lot of near misses on their international record. I predict that that will end in this qualifier though. I have confidence that this will be the competition that truly puts Czech baseball on the map. I can even see them winning the pool outright if all goes well. If the pitching holds out and hitters hit as they can, they will qualify, and I can see them giving very creditable performances in the main tournament once they do.
Great Britain
Team GB came fairly close in 2016, upsetting Brazil before falling at the final hurdle versus Israel who proceeded to go on a Cinderella run in the 2017 WBC. They will try again in 2022. The British boast two European silver medals (1967, 2007) and the game has a longer history in Britain than many realize.
Most of the squad play their ball in various European leagues such as the German Bundesliga or in independent leagues. There are also collegiate players with British passports playing in America. Cardinals prospect Matt Koperniak is probably the most dangerous British bat with a 135 WRC+ in AA. If he can keep it up he could even reach MLB at some point. Other Brits ply their trade in American independent ball.
The squad can hit and there is speed also. Pitching however has been traditionally suspect. Former MLB pitcher Akeel Morris is eligible to play for the Union Jack though and adding him would be a considerable bonus. There are also numerous Bahamians playing affiliated ball that could be persuaded to play for Britain. Adding the right pieces there would give this team a noticeable boost.
Team GB will need a lot to go right in order to qualify. They will need to win the games against France and South Africa for sure and likely two of the other teams also. They can beat those teams but beating Spain and even the Czechs and Germans would be something of an upset. This team will not embarrass itself but I would not consider them a favorite to qualify. It would not be a total miracle if they do though. They are historically a plucky team and the 2021 Euros seemed to suggest they are improving.
France
If France has anything going, it is that this team will be very well led by one of the game’s greatest minds. Bruce Bochy is likely going to be a Hall of Fame manager. (already, just needs to be inducted) Having Canadian closer and Cy Young award winner Eric Gagne in tow as pitching coach also helps big time. To top it off, another former World Series winning manager, Ozzie Guillen, will serve as Bochy’s bench coach. France has one medal at the Euros which was a bronze in 1999 after a period of marked improvement mainly under Japanese coaching and are generally a top ten European team. That said, they are coming off a rather poor showing at the 2021 European Championships where they landed in 15th. They are a better team than this but it is a sign that there is work to be done.
The French team will be composed mainly of players from the local Division Elite, the French top tier. There are a few players eligible to represent France in American affiliated ball but these are few and also not necessarily game changers. The players that France can bank on being there have not really put up great showings at recent international competitions so depth will be an issue for sure. As stated before, they are well coached though and this will help maximize what talent they do have relative to the other teams in the pool. In European ball, managers tend to use very old school and tend to lack the tactical sophistication we expect from managers in Japan, Korea and certainly here in America at MLB level. That will not be an issue with Bochy or Guillen for obvious reasons.
For the French, it is imperative they play far better than at the 2021 Euros. If they put up a tournament like that, they’ll be out quickly. If they play to the level that they are capable of though, and I think they will, they can give a creditable performance. They will be hard pressed to qualify given the lack of depth and difference making players that the other European teams can field. But they have the right coaching staff to get the most out of these players and I fail to see why they can’t at least pull out a win or two in this qualifying tournament.
South Africa
The only African team trying to reach the WBC, the South Africans are veterans of the inaugural two WBC tournaments in 2006 and 2009 which they were invited to. They are still seeking their first WBC win but did come close to beating Canada in that 2006 edition. They have failed to qualify for the last two editions though and failed to win a game in the qualifying tournament for the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. The last decade did however see Gift Ngoepe become the first African to reach the major leagues so an important glass ceiling for South African baseball, and African baseball as a whole has been shattered.
Most of the South African squad will come from outside the professional ranks. They have former MLB infielder Ngoepe and CPBL pitcher Dylan Unsworth. They are very thin on pitching though and the offense is far from a world beater. They also lack the luxury of frequent international competition given how little baseball is played in Africa. Thankfully, that is changing but there are precious few opportunities for South Africa to truly test itself against stronger competition so gauging where this team is is less than simple.
Most likely, South Africa will not qualify for the 2023 WBC. There is simply not enough depth here. If they can come out with a victory or two that would be an impressive success. The most important thing will be that they are getting an opportunity to face serious competition for the first time in a while and if some players from their team show some promise in this qualifier, that can be a foundation on which to build for the future. The most important thing the South African baseball brass can do though is find this team opportunities to play together more regularly, especially since these players are mostly not getting reps in at club level.
Spain
Of the team's in this pool, only Spain has previously reached a WBC, achieving qualification for the 2013 tournament. Spain lost all three of their games but were not embarrassed in any of them in spite of being in a group with Puerto Rico, Venezuela and eventual champion Dominican Republic. They did not qualify for the 2017 edition after losses to Colombia and France. Spain is a European powerhouse and a regular medalist at the European Championships. (1 gold, 2 silver, 15 bronze) They are the third most decorated nation in European baseball.
Spain benefits from being able to call upon a number of Cuban, Dominican and Venezuelan born players, including a number playing affiliated ball in the US. Others play their pro ball in Latin America or Europe. MLB veteran Engel Beltre and Spanish league standout Jesus Ustariz bring some bats. The other hitters on this team are not bad either. Current Met Luis Guillorme represented Spain at the 2016 qualifiers before he reached MLB. Most likely the Venezuelan can be persuaded to don Spanish colors again but at the main tournament. (No way the Mets let him skip out in the middle of the pennant race) He is probably good enough to make Team Venezuela though so he has a choice to make.
Pitching is fairly solid too by European standards. There are some players with solid professional experience and there is bullpen depth, a massive luxury in Europe. Again many are Latin Americans with ties to Spain. What matters though is that they can, and in many cases will answer the call for Spain. As a result, this will be perhaps the most complete team in the pool.
The 2021 Euros were strong for Spain in spite of missing out on a medal. In 2019, the U18 team made the U18 World Cup and blasted Panama 12-3 and put up tough fights against the likes of the USA, Japan and Taiwan for there is good young talent coming.
The prognosis on Spain is good. I fully expect them to put the poor 2016 WBC qualifier well behind them. They are the strongest and deepest team in the pool and it is possible they could win out and qualify in style. Even if they do drop a game they should be fine. Missing out on the 2023 WBC would be a massive failure but the chances of this happening are remote. But then again, baseball is baseball and short tournaments can make for unpredictability.
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Pool B
Participants: Panama, Pakistan, Nicaragua, Argentina, Brazil, New Zealand
Venue: Panama City, Panama
The baseball hotbed of Panama hosts this qualifier featuring teams from four different continents. It should be a very interesting qualifier featuring Latin American countries with long and proud baseball traditions as well as some up and comers looking for their first major breakthroughs in the sport. As with Pool A I offer below my rankings with team by team overviews to follow.
Panama (The class of the field with depth and home field advantage to boot)
Nicaragua (Toss up with Brazil but history of international success and producing MLB level talent makes me think they'll debut at the 2023 WBC)
Brazil (Up and coming team in Latin America. If they could call on Gomes and Bichette they would win the pool but they can't)
New Zealand (Best of the rest but probably weaker than the top three)
Argentina (If Castaneda and Lin An Ko play maybe a threat but if not, too thin to truly contend)
Pakistan (Not enough depth to contend but will be more competitive than in the 2016 qualifier)
Panama
The hosts were invited to the 2006 and 2009 WBC tournaments but have failed to qualify since. They do have a long and proud baseball tradition though and boast two MLB Hall of Famers (Carew, Rivera) including the only unanimous choice. They continually produce MLB level talent and others who ply their trade in American affiliated ball or in pro leagues elsewhere. They are a fixture in international competition at youth and senior level and boast strong performances in such competitions.
For this qualifier, current Panamanian major leaguers will be unavailable but they have enough minor league talent available to them to make it work. Catching prospect Miguel Amaya could feature as well as former major leaguers Manny Corpas and Manny Acosta. Current Twins minor leaguer with big league experience Ariel Jurado is also an option.
Outside of the American minor league system there are Panamanian players playing in Mexico who can be made available such as former big leaguer Enrique Burgess and the aforementioned Acosta. The local pro league, Probeis, will supply further pieces.
Pitching should be strong given the multiple former major leaguers available. Hitting will benefit from young up and comers but there is less big league experience to draw on. It should still be enough for the purposes of this qualifier though.
The hosts will need a lot to go wrong to miss out on qualification. They are most likely the class of this field and can fully be expected to win out. That said, baseball needs to be played and the team will need to do the job on the field. The talent level though, combined with the experience and home field advantage to boot stacks the cards very much in their favor.
Pakistan
Pakistan first threw their hat in the ring for the 2016 WBC qualifier. Two heavy losses to Brazil and Great Britain brought about the end for their dream then. Since then, they did pick up a win in Pool A versus Thailand at the 2018 Asian Games and won three straight in the consolation round. They did lose heavily to Japan and China though. The 2019 Asian Baseball Championship went badly though as Pakistan finished winless.
The roster will be comprised mainly of players outside the pro ranks. There is little baseball infrastructure or government support in the country for the sport. That said, there is a large diaspora in baseball hotbeds like Canada and the US to draw on. Already, former NFL QB Gibran Hamdan is in. Maybe he's not even a pro baseball player, but he brings name recognition to a team that needs it. Plus he does have high level experience from his youth. Baseball is also slowly making inroads in the country's school system and being a cricket hotbed, there are plenty of good athletes with skills transferable to baseball that can be enlisted with time and effort.
Pakistan will need a miracle to qualify for the WBC. They lack depth and experience against strong competition to pull it off. However, there is an opportunity here to build a foundation for future success. Given that similarly inexperienced teams Argentina and New Zealand will play them, I don't expect them to be routed in every game. If they play well, they can be competitive at least in those games. Even one win could significantly boost the game in their country and move forward plans such as establishing a national league which has been discussed within Pakistan or establishing more inter-school competitions at youth level.
Nicaragua
Another Latin American country with a strong track record of international success, Nicaragua has also produced its fair share of major league talent. Such talents include current national team skipper Marvin Bernard and Expos legend Dennis Martinez who belongs in Cooperstown. They boast five second place finishes at the Baseball World Cup and a 4th place finish at the 1996 Atlanta Olympics.
The local professional league, which is respectable in quality, will supply the vast majority of the team for this WBC qualifying attempt. A few players are in the minor league system in the US. Former major leaguer and 2015 World Series winner Cheslor Cuthbert currently plies his trade in Mexico and should be available. He brings MLB experience and quality defense. Giants prospect Rodolfo Bone is likely to be picked also. Pitching will likely exclusively come from the Nicaraguan Professional Baseball League though.
Nicaragua is not as heavy a favorite as Panama to qualify but they have enough pedigree and overall quality to be the second team to make it out of the group. Brazil is likely their biggest threat besides Panama for qualification as they have made important strides in recent years. If Nicaragua puts up a strong showing in Panama City though, they have the tools to secure their first ever WBC berth.
Argentina
The only debutants in this qualifier pool, Argentina do not have a long history with baseball, but there have been some strides of late. They did qualify for the Pan Am Games for the first time finishing 7th in Lima 2019. They are also seven time South American champions, most recently in 2018. They also did reach the U23 World Cup in 2016 finishing 10th.
Most likely you will not recognize anyone on this team anymore than you would the Pakistani team. Argentina has no players in the American or major Latin American pro ranks. However, Marlins pitcher Daniel Castano is of Argentine descent. CPBL star Lin An Ko also has an Argentine mother, making him eligible to play for Argentina should he wish to do so and should Uni-Lions let him leave in the middle of the second half title race. If either becomes available, it would be a massive boost. Orioles pitcher Yennier Cano (a Cuban who lived in Argentina and even played in the Liga Argentina de Beisbol) is also able to represent. The qualifying battle though will be waged with players from the local pro league consisting of six clubs.
Argentina is an improving country on the baseball scene but qualification will be difficult in this case. Their national league is not at the level of the bigger Latin American leagues but there is also no pressure at all on this team and they have the backing of a federation determined to push the game forward in their country. There are winnable games in this pool also. Argentina should beat Pakistan and maybe even New Zealand. The other teams, especially Panama, would be a much tougher order. And you know they will give their all and then some to beat bitter sporting rival Brazil should they meet. I look forward to this game as much as any across the two qualifying pools. It really would be must see TV.
Brazil
Such is Brazilian success in soccer that their successes in other sports is often overshadowed. It is no different with baseball. Brazil achieved qualification to the 2013 tournament where they went 0-3 but put up rather competitive performances throughout including close run games against Cuba and Japan. The 2017 qualification campaign ended with a shock loss to Great Britain. They will try to rectify that here in this tournament. They boast two Baseball World Cup appearances and seven South American titles. The last decade has also seen the debut of the first Brazilian born major leaguers.
Current major league catcher Yan Gomes likely wouldn’t become available unless Brazil qualifies. Former major leaguer and 2015 World Series champ Paulo Orlando probably would be though and would be a nice add to their outfield. Thanks to his Brazilian mother, Blue Jays star Bo Bichette is eligible but like Gomes will likely only come into the picture if Brazil reaches the main show. His brother Dante Jr. who played minor league ball is available and expected to play though. Blue Jays pitching prospect Eric Pardinho is another possibility. Hall of Fame shortstop Barry Larkin is returning to manage the squad.
The roster will most likely consist of players playing pro ball in either Mexico, the American minor leagues, or their native country which operates in a tournament format. This is an advantage given the nature of international competitions as this is something familiar to them. They have fairly decent pitching if they get most of their key guys and this has been a common denominator across their international performances. The hitting is not as deep but respectable. They have some speed too and a manager who knows what it takes to win and has been invested in Brazilian baseball for about a decade now.
Brazil will be hard pressed without their best players but are definitely at worst the third best team in this pool. The key question is what they are at their best. If they prove stronger than Nicaragua and/or Panama, it will be enough to qualify. They definitely need to beat at least one of those teams to qualify but can fully be expected to beat Argentina, New Zealand and Pakistan. If they succeed, they can be a handful at the main tournament especially if Bo’s hair flows for the verde amarelha.
New Zealand
The Kiwis are on their third attempt to reach the World Baseball Classic. They came close to reaching the 2013 edition, but fell at the final hurdle. They did not come so close for the 2017 edition. They will try again in this tournament. Their only other noteworthy international experience was an attempt to reach the 1996 Olympic Games. They do have a couple of players who played Division 1 college baseball in recent years and two Kiwis were signed this year by major league teams and are currently working their way up the minor league affiliates.
New Zealand will likely send players exclusively from the Aussie league which sports a team from Auckland. Current minor leaguers Eliot Johnstone, Clayton Campbell, (signed by Detroit for $125,000) Jason Matthews and Nikau Pouaka-Grego could play. We’ll see if they do. Braves minor league pitcher Ben Thompson is another possibility. Overall though the team will consist mainly of Aussie leaguers. Experience will be an issue and lack of potential game changers on their roster another issue. They have shown themselves in the past to be a gritty bunch though and they have young talent coming through.
The Kiwis will probably fall short again but they should be expected to give a good account of themselves in this qualifier. They are more than capable of beating Pakistan and probably Argentina as well. The other three will be tougher orders but a surprise win over Brazil would seriously improve their chances. With more New Zealanders finding their way into the American pro ranks, the future looks bright but is not yet here.
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