***All stats quoted are from Baseball Savant unless otherwise noted***
Going into 2023, it is safe to say that Kris Bubic has had a rough time in MLB. His struggles were especially evident in a 2022 season to forget. He got rocked to the tune of 5.58 ERA, a 1.70 WHIP and 44.9% hard hit rate. Over his career going into 2023, he was 10-26 never having registered an ERA lower than 4.32 or a WHIP lower than 1.38. In 2023, he is 0-1 but things look very, very different. His WHIP sits at 0.91, his ERA at 1.64 and his K/BB rate is a stellar 19/2. He has gone from ranking in the bottom ten percent of pitchers in average against, hard hit rate, K%, xSLG and chase rate to being no worse than average in chase rate (51st percentile) and being well above average in those other categories. The usual disclaimers about small sample sizes and it being very early in the season apply of course, but there are encouraging underlying signs that we could really be witnessing one of the most dramatic year-to-year improvements in recent years.
How good has Bubic been in the early going of 2023? Well, on Sunday, he had the following line: 9 K, 0 BB, 0 ER, 2 hits, 6.0 IP. That has happened exactly twice in Kansas City Royals history and the other two instances involved club legends Brett Saberhagen (known for struggling in even numbered years and dominating in odd numbered years) and current teammate Zach Greinke. He was not bad in his loss against the Jays either, especially considering the high powered lineup he was facing. But what is interesting is not so much his pitching lines as any pitcher can have a short spurt of good form. What catches the eye is the vast improvement in the quality of the individual pitches he is throwing versus a year ago.
The most obvious development can be observed with the radar gun. His fastball, once hovering around 90-92 MPH is a good 2-3 MPH faster on average. This can likely trace back to mechanical improvements as he has been observed as getting a 6” longer extension in his delivery per Lance Brozdowski. He also observes that Bubic is throwing from a somewhat lower arm slot and that he is getting better velocity on his secondary pitches as well.
Another key observation is the emergence of the slider in his repertoire. Apparently, former pitching coach Cal Eldred had not been a fan of Bubic throwing the slider. Clearly, that has changed now and Bubic is making a strong case for the pitch remaining in his arsenal. He got several whiffs with it the other day against the Giants and it has featured prominently on his way to having an 18.8% swinging strike rate so far on the young season. (2nd in baseball) It is a sharp moving pitch that tends to hover in the 83 MPH range with a 9” late horizontal break and he has been very good at painting the corners with it so far. Watching highlights, I have seen some rather ugly swings at this pitch.
With his changeup, he is throwing it about 3 MPH faster but with less vertical movement relative to his fastball. (11” difference on average) He has gotten plenty of swings and misses on this also. This is mainly due to the fact that he’s been much better at deceiving hitters thanks to his simpler mechanics. Many get caught thinking fastball, and with that pitch being of much better quality, it gives hitters more to think about. The action on the changeup is a late, subtle 1-2” break that was giving hitters fits even in spring training. My understanding is he has slightly altered his grip and it is working.
What is becoming apparent to me is that the new Royals staff concluded that there was potential in Bubic that was not being tapped into and resolved to work with him to fix the issues rather than give up on him. In the short term, they are reaping the rewards and there is good reason to believe that Kris Bubic 2.0 is for real. He is still not necessarily overpowering but he is now a pitcher who locates well, who mixes up his pitches more. He was overusing his fastball in 2022 and it is perhaps because did not feel so confident enough in his secondary offerings. Now his secondary offerings are much better but so is the fastball. What you are seeing is a more confident pitcher who has been given a much better personalized blueprint for success. The modernization of the Royals coaching staff and front office has paved the way to get the most out pitchers like Bubic. Their whole pitching staff is showing marked improvement, especially the youngsters.
The league will adjust to Bubic as the season goes on but when it does, Bubic has shown that he can adjust in kind. Yes, the coaching staff deserves credit but the pitcher himself has to execute the plan and he has. The Stanford product is a clear early candidate for most improved player and the foundations for his early success seem solid enough to have him sustain success beyond 2023 and suddenly force the Royals to include him in their longer term plans as they move from rebuilders to contenders in the coming years. I think most of us slept on him. He was missing on just about every fantasy sleeper list when looking back, the signs were there even in Spring Training that he had made drastic improvements to his game. It’s safe to say that many will scramble to snatch him from the waiver wire or free agent list now.
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