Baseball is full of pitchers with great raw stuff whose numbers ultimately significantly underperform expectations generated by that raw stuff. The most extreme example in 2023 has been Japanese import Shintaro Fujinami. Now, to be clear, Fujinami has been known to struggle with command for years even in Japan but we are talking about someone who routinely hits triple digits with his fastball, wields a 95mph splitter and a cutter with nice movement. How does that lead to an ERA over 10 and a WHIP approaching 2 even with serious command issues?
To put it bluntly, Fujinami is getting hammered in his debut campaign in America. His 10.57 ERA is already unsightly enough but his other metrics are even more concerning. He ranks in the 2nd percentile in BB% suggesting extreme command woes, 7th percentile in hard hit rate, 1st percentile in fastball spin rate, and 1st percentile in chase rate which implies he has not been following many hitters. The one solace is he ranks in the 80th percentile in whiff rate, which is not surprising given how hard he throws and how tough his splitter can be to hit. It’s his best secondary pitch to be honest.
I’ve already pointed out the first glaring issue with Fujinami, control. No matter how good your stuff is, if you have a 15.6% walk rate, you are setting yourself up for failure at MLB level. This does not require much explanation. The second issue I see is that Fujinami has thrown seven different pitch types this season and nowhere near at prime Yu Darvish level. He only has two secondary pitches that I would even bother continuing to use. The splitter should be the main one. It moves rather well and topping out in the mid 90s, it can be a powerful weapon if he gets ahead in counts often enough. He has a 33.3% whiff rate with it and the wOBA against is only .301. The cutter is decent enough that it can be mixed in. It has a 40.3% whiff rate so it clearly challenges hitters. Still, if he locates it better it’s useful. And then there is the fastball. It is both the most and the least impressive pitch in his arsenal. 102mph is no joke, but it means little if it’s continually out of the zone. The other issue is that it does not move much. He generates a 24.3% whiff rate on pure velocity but the .389 wOBA against is largely for two reasons, poor control, and hitting the happy part of the strike zone. In other words, he misses on the plate too much as well as off the plate hence the .284 BAA.
So is Fujinami sunk cost for Oakland? As a starter, probably. In none of his starts did he show an ability to maintain good command or fool hitters for more than an inning at a time. As a reliever though, I think it’s worth it for the A’s to be patient. His game log suggests that for an inning or two at a time, he actually can be effective but his bad outings as a reliever are truly abominable. He has also been a bit unlucky. His xERA is 5.96 versus his actual ERA which is over 10. No, he has not been good, but he has been BABIP’d quite a lot, (.351 BABIP) including in his last outing against Toronto.
There are two keys in my view for him to improve his numbers going forward. One is to mix it up more. He throws his fastball almost 55% of the time and even at 100+mph, it is not quite as formidable a pitch unless he finds a way to generate more life on it movement-wise. The splitter and cutter need to feature a bit more, especially the cutter when he falls behind in counts or has runners on and needs quick outs. The second is the most important and can be summed up in two words, strike one. With him, it has been consistently ball one. This is why he has an abysmal chase rate in spite of a high whiff rate. Hitters simply bank on him missing the strike zone and so far, nothing indicates that is a bad approach. If Fujinami starts consistently getting into 0-1 counts rather than 1-0 counts, you will see that chase rate rise rapidly because hitters go on the defensive and this is where the two good secondary pitches Fujinami has can be very effective, especially the splitter. Maybe somewhat simplified mechanics can do this for him even if he sacrifices a mile or two on his fastball. If it leads to improved command and movement, it’s honestly a worthwhile trade-off.
Fujinami had his share of problems even in Japan but he has also shown what he can be. He was a three time All-Star in Japan, a league known for having many savvy contact hitters and also some dangerous power bats. He can also be a strikeout machine. Even in this season, he does get over a batter an inning with all that we’ve discussed that is going against him. My conclusion is the A’s as a non-contending team might as well give him the time he needs to try and correct his issues at MLB level. With the right coaching and right adjustments from him, he has the stuff to turn things around, and I really hope he does.
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