The big day is coming. Soon we will know who joins Fred McGriff in the Class of 2023. It is a rather interesting ballot and Baseball Reference has been kind enough to compile the list of eligible players along with their relevant statistics. About 170 ballots are now publicly known. I will avoid saying too much more in this article so as to not skew the opinions of readers but definitely look up Ryan Thibodeaux on Twitter if you wish to track this more closely. For this article, I will simply state which players I would tick off on if I had a ballot and why. Without further delay, here is my very unofficial ballot.
Scott Rolen (Chance Of Induction in 2023: High)
He was simply the best defensive third baseman since Brooks Robinson. He also had superior offensive outputs across his career. He hit over 300 HR across a career spanning from 1996-2012 and finished up with a .855 OPS. He was the NL ROTY in 1996 and a seven time All-Star selection. He also won eight gold gloves in that span and one championship with the 2006 Cardinals. His offensive numbers may pale in comparison to a Mike Schmidt but he was a far superior defender and also had an element of speed that other HOF third basemen like Ron Santo or even Robinson lacked. His 70.1 WAR compares well with the vast majority of his contemporaries and other HOF third sackers. To me, Rolen belongs if Santo, Robinson and Schmidt do, and those men most definitely do belong. I think the writers will wind up agreeing with me this year although I expect he will cut it close. If he gets in, it will be with 75-80% of the vote.
Todd Helton (Chance Of Induction in 2023: Moderate)
Playing his home games at Coors Field and having never won a World Series will be knocks. So will his relative anonymity compared to other stars in the 2000’s but Todd Helton belongs in Cooperstown. He boasts four Silver Slugger Awards at a highly competitive first base position, five All-Star selections, 1406 career RBI and a career .953 OPS. He also owns a 61.8 career WAR and a .316 career BA in an era of free swingers, three digit fastballs and sky-high strikeout rates. He was a rare power bat that walked more than he struck out and he never did strike out over 100 times even with the way hitting is approached in the 21st century. In many ways, Helton is a blast from the past. I think he will miss out on induction this season unfortunately but will eventually get in. He may need to wait like former teammate Larry Walker but I think eventually justice will prevail.
Billy Wagner (Chance Of Induction in 2023: Moderate)
Largely overshadowed by Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman, I still believe Billy Wagner belongs among the games all-time elite closers. His 422 saves is good for 6th on the all-time list. He also boasts a career 2.31 ERA and 0.998 WHIP both of which compare favorably with Hoffman and the difference in career WAR is just about negligible. Wagner also has a career 11.9 K/9 and seven All-Star selections to his name. What Wagner does lack is the sterling playoff resume of Rivera. That said, other great closers like Lee Smith and Trevor Hoffman also lacked this. What Wagner had in spades was consistency. Only in an injury plagued 2000 season did he have an ERA over 3.00. He was also a safe bet to reach the 30 save plateau and strike out 90-100 batters a season in the 70 or so innings closers often get. He was dominant for such a large percentage of his career that keeping him out of Cooperstown would be senseless. I believe that like Helton, he will miss out in 2023 but once again gain votes. I think he will get that final year push when he gets there and eventually take his place in the hall.
Andruw Jones (Chance Of Induction in 2023: Moderate)
A dominant power hitter and five tool talent early in his career, Jones finished with over 400 career home runs and five All-Star selections. His low career batting average and sharp decline after 2007 hurt his case a bit. It is hard to overlook ten Gold Gloves and five All-Star selections though. More importantly, it is hard to overlook just how good his prime was. He did everything well in that period from 1996-2006 and he debuted as a 19 year old to boot. He also won a lot, though unfortunately not a World Series title. He did feature on a number of playoff teams though. That should also count for something. His 62.7 WAR is also remarkable. Overall, his numbers are comparable, even favorably so to a Ralph Kiner who is in the Hall Of Fame and a Dale Murphy who ought to be. To boot, these two men were not his peers defensively. Jones will likely see a bump in support this year but I believe he will miss out in 2023. Nevertheless, he will get in eventually. He has four more years to continue compiling support. Time is on his side.
Jeff Kent (Chance Of Induction in 2023: Low)
It is a shame that Jeff Kent will almost certainly seep through the cracks in his final year. He is a five time All-Star with four Silver Slugger awards and an MVP award in 2000. He wound up with 377 HR, 1518 RBI and a .290 career BA. His career 55.4 WAR compares favorably with Hall of Fame second basemen Bobby Doerr and Bill Mazeroski though does pale with Joe Morgan who is the gold standard at the position or his contemporary Roberto Alomar who largely overshadowed him in the late 90’s. Even so, Kent has a strong case especially when compared to most other Hall of Famers at his position. Unfortunately, even on his own team, many of the headlines were taken by Barry Bonds. He also lacks the championship rings that Alomar and Morgan do have. He was also far enough out going into his final year that he will need a historic surge to get in. Hopefully, like with Fred McGriff, a committee will eventually put it right.
Omissions That I Can Be Persuaded To Overturn
Alex Rodriguez: If it were not for the two PED suspensions he’s an easy first ballot entry but as we know it is not quite so easy now. He has by far the best numbers of the 2023 crop of candidates but also the most baggage. I am ambivalent about A-Rod. I don’t want to endorse him but also I don’t want to discard him outright given that some PED users probably did seep through the cracks and into Cooperstown.
Gary Sheffield: Like with Rodriguez, the PED baggage hurts him. Again, it is a huge shame given that he is also in the 500 HR club and had an over .900 career OPS. He also had over 250 SB and an over .390 OBP. He was a very complete player. My feel on him is similar to A-Rod.
Manny Ramirez: Similar deal to the above two. PED issues send him down from slam dunk inductee to someone on the outside looking in.
Omar Vizquel: His more impressive offensive numbers are largely due to longevity. Granted, the longevity is impressive and a qualifier in its own right. That said, at no point in his career was Vizquel a marquee offensive performer. He was a defensive master though and much of 45.6 WAR derives from his elite defense. That may get him in eventually as it did Rabbit Marranville or Dave Bancroft. If so, I think that is fine. He was a generational talent defensively.
Jimmy Rollins: Rollins was a largely complete player. He had speed, power, contact skills and strong defense. Others had more of each of these categories, but few if any combined them all the way Rollins did at the shortstop position. It will taken some time for him to get his due but I think he’ll get in.
Bobby Abreu: In his prime, he was arguably one of the five or ten best players in the game. And who can forget his Home Run Derby exploits in 2008. Yet, he flies under the radar because his season stats each year are not quite so eye popping. But having said that, the overall body of work is as impressive as any of the stars from the last twenty years. He deserves way more than 8.6% of the vote which is what he got a year ago.
Carlos Beltran: A true five tool talent early in his career, Carlos Beltran rode a long, fruitful career into a pretty strong Hall of Fame case. Of course, he’ll get hurt by having been a prominent part of the 2017 Houston Astros sign stealing scandal. His 70.1 WAR is tied for second with Scott Rolen and Beltran has the strongest case out of the new candidates for 2023. He will get in at some point. He simply has to. That said, I think enough writers will nail him on the sign stealing scandal to keep him out in the short term.
The Others
The rest of the class were all very good or even great players. However, at this time, I deem them to be clearly below Hall of Fame caliber and unlikely to gain enshrinement from the writers. I may decide that my initial judgment was wrong in time as has happened in many cases through the years. Some players need time to have their greatness appreciated in full. In any case, I wish the entire candidate class of 2023 well and hope that as many as possible do get to the 75% magic number. It should be a momentous day on that Sunday in July for them and for the rest of the world baseball family.
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