So we struck out. He went to the Dodgers. Maybe we got duped. Maybe we got outbid at the eleventh hour. That said, it’s time to dust ourselves off and move onto other ways of addressing team needs. There is a lot of work to do and not much time to do it in so no time to cry over Ohtani. There are free agents that would come here but we need to move in on them asap. But what to do? Well, we know there are three key areas of need at this time. First up, we need a credible source of left-handed power. Our line-up is way too righty heavy and has been for years. Our moves in the 2022-23 offseason failed to address this properly. We also need a replacement at third for Matt Chapman, which may turn out to be Chapman himself on a new deal. And finally, we could use arms in the bullpen like any other team. Hell, even an extra starter would be nice if only because that can create leverage for moves on the trade market.
Left-Handed Bats
The Jays will need a left-handed bat to replace the free agents Brandon Belt and Kevin Kiermaier but also to provide the protection that Daulton Varsho really doesn’t behind Vlad and Bo. There are quite a few options but given that everyone saw the Jays were willing to go $500M plus to get Ohtani, the agents of Cody Bellinger, Rhys Hoskins etc. will be chomping at the bit to extract max dollars from Toronto knowing that they have a glaring need. They will need to be careful not to succumb.
For example, we’ve all seen what Cody Bellinger is at his best. (2017 NL ROTY, 2019 NL MVP) But we’ve also seen him have absolute clunkers like his 2021-22 stretch. (44 OPS+ in 2021, 81 OPS+ in 2022) 2023 was a nice bounceback and he did make the All-Star team. He can also play OF and 1B well. But again, the demands will be high and if they are unreasonable the Jays need to look elsewhere. I would dangle a 3-4 year pact at $21-24M AAV and some incentives sprinkled in. If he walks, he walks.
Rhys Hoskins missed all of 2023 but he has a strong track record of power hitting. However, I should caution you that this was all whilst playing home games at Citizens Bank Park. There is also the high K-rate and low average. He does have good plate discipline though. He wields a career .353 OBP and 125 OPS+ over his six seasons. He will have to DH though especially coming off missing a full season with some starts at first when Vlad rests. At age 30, a one year “show me” deal at $15-18M may be interesting and he may be highly motivated to parlay that into a bigger deal next winter. Proceed with caution though.
Less flashy MLB options include Joc Pederson, who would be great as a strong-side platoon player with a track record of playing on winning teams. He also strikes me as the sort of guy that would like Toronto as a place to play. If we’re paying north of $10-12M though it’s a tough sell. Michael A. Taylor brings speed and good defense, but isn’t going to give us the intimidating leftie bat we need.
Right-handed options include a reunion with Teo or Loudres Gurriel Jr. but I don’t think the front office would do this. There is also Jorge Soler but again, we have lots of right-handed power already and we need to balance out our lineup, so I would only do Soler if the money is right and if we’re also adding a leftie bat somewhere.
The Hot Corner
During the Ohtani frenzy, we missed out on Jeimer Candelario who inked a 3yr/$45M pact with the Reds. The next big option is a known commodity. Matt Chapman is an elite defender and a former All-Star. He’s also been here for the last two seasons and comes with the added bonus of familiarity. He did take a step back offensively though going from 3.4 oWAR in 2022 to 3.1 oWAR in 2023 and while his overall numbers in 2023 are not that different from 2022, they are largely tempered by a brilliant first six weeks of the season that he never came close to matching the rest of the way. His dWar did jump from 0.6 in 2022 to 1.6 in 2023 though, which seems consistent with the eye test. He was back to being Matt Chapman defensively. Going forward into his age 31 season, it is unlikely his bat will go back to pre-Covid levels in Oakland, but his defense is still strong, and that rubs off on the pitchers and other infielders. If his defense holds, he can still put up a solid 3.5-4.0WAR a season for the next few seasons. Now for the money. He rejected the $20.3M qualifying offer because his camp probably saw the lack of depth in this year’s 3B class so he will ask for $20M plus. Something around what Chris Bassitt got (3yr/$63M) will be the minimum baseline. I can see Chapman getting something around 3-4 years at a $22-25M AAV but it may be more given the massive dropoff in options after he signs. If it goes beyond $25M AAV, the Jays may want to look at the trade market instead though.
Speaking of trades, what to do? I’ve seen talk about Jose Ramirez but that ship probably sailed when he re-upped with Cleveland. The Padres dealt Juan Soto but dealing Manny Machado is nevertheless unlikely given that they are still players for some key free agents and will probably try to contend even without Soto. The Angels may dangle Brandon Drury and a second go-around in Toronto is not out of the question. His versatility makes him a nice piece also but is last season a baseline for him or is it fool’s gold? The Astros may look at trading Alex Bregman also but they’re also still very much a contender and this may be something they consider only if they start to fall out of it in mid-season.
In house, the Jays may opt to give the reins to Davis Schneider or some mix of Orelvis Martinez and/or Addison Barger. This may be a masterstroke but it could also scuttle our currently open competitive window and it is a lot to ask of unproven kids to seamlessly replace a former All-Star on a team with World Series aspirations. There is precedent for this being done successfully though. Just look at Baltimore last season. It may be the route the Jays ultimately choose.
Arms Race
Every team needs arms. You can never have enough pitching depth given the wild ride of injuries and underperformance that each season can be. The Jays had a great rotation in 2023, save for the significant regression from Alek Manoah. This does not mean they will not add a starter though. Manoah has elicited trade interest in spite of everything and adding a starter would make a trade more viable to address other needs. The best starters available are NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell, and Japanese phenom Yoshinobu Yamamoto. No, Roki Sasaki is most likely not getting posted, in spite of the rumors going around. Snell is a known quantity in the AL East from his years in Tampa Bay. He seems to have rediscovered his old Tampa dominance also. Yamamoto promises to be the Japanese Pedro Martinez. At 25 years old, he presents a rare opportunity to snag an ace at age 25 or under on the free agent market, which almost never happens. Naturally, Yamamoto will command a significant price tag which will likely range from $200M to as much as $300M. To say he may be worth every penny would be to state the obvious. It is a unique opportunity that I personally would love the Jays to pounce on. If we missed one great Japanese star, the fanbase will get a significant mood boost by locking down the other Japanese stud available. 97 MPH fastball with elite secondary pitches and absurdly good command will play in any league.
The other possibility is to add strong bullpen arms. The rest of the starting pitching market is not great, especially with Eduardo Rodriguez and Aaron Nola off the board. But the reliever market is still good for adding arms to bolster depth. Jordan Romano is firmly set in the closer role so the Jays will look mainly for middle relief arms on short term, low risk deals. The Jays will most likely not make a move on Josh Hader since they have Romano under club control but someone like Aroldis Chapman or Hector Neris could work on a short deal. No need to give relievers rich multi-year pacts. We have good ones under club control and just need to shore up depth.
Summary
There are still many ways to skin the cat, even with Ohtani now off the board. The Jays may opt for one big bat to address their offensive holes or they may piece together with multiple pieces. Pitching was good but there remain opportunities worth jumping at to then leverage the newfound depth on the trade market. Time is of the essence though. There are not many big difference makers left on the board and after missing out on Ohtani and on Juan Soto, the fans will not be satisfied without a big splash, especially if division rivals go into 2024 appreciably stronger. But the front office will need to balance that pressure with the need to ensure that the club is not saddled with albatross type contracts years down the line. An underwhelming offseason is better than one that turns sour later on. The post-Ohtani FOMO is real and totally understandable, but it cannot cloud the front office’s judgment moving forward.
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