***All stats from Baseball Savant unless otherwise noted***
“I have no words” crowed some anonymous MLB executive in the wake of the Red Sox having signed Japanese outfielder Masataka Yoshida to a six year contract paying him $90 million. I have no words either, only a tip of the hat to the oft-maligned and yet exceptionally wise Chaim Bloom for scoring the bargain of the winter. Legend has it that the famous anonymous executive is also on mute from now till kingdom come. I also have no words for how Yoshida was snubbed for the recent All-Star game. You’ll see why as we recap the first half-season in America for the Macho Man.
The path towards egging the faces of the nay-sayers began before the season, where Yoshida attracted further scrutiny by opting to play for Japan at the WBC rather than play meaningful games in Spring Training. (wink, wink) All he did there was be the most productive bat in a lineup featuring Ohtani, Murakami and Okamoto. He hit .409, homered twice, and broke a WBC record with 13 RBI as Japan lifted the trophy over the USA. He struck out once all tournament long. That was the trailer, now onto the movie.
It began with a whimper. To say Yoshida was underwhelming in early April would be understating it. He started off hitting with little power and then missed a few games with hamstring trouble. After his return though, things began to change. His strong late April led to a final monthly line of 4 HR and 15 RBI with a solid .265 BA. He never looked back. He was torrid in May with a .962 OPS and a .410 OBP. June saw some regression but a hot start to July capped off a strong first half for Yoshida. It ended with a .316/.382/.492 slash line, 10 HR, 44 RBI and an .874 OPS, numbers far superior to a number of players who actually were named to the AL All Star team.
Looking at the underlying numbers makes his case still more impressive. His strikeout rate is just barely above 10% (10.8%) in an era of high strikeout rates and 100 MPH fastballs. Not bad for a guy who was branded as not being able to hit velocity. His walk rate is a healthy 7.8%, boosted by his ability to work counts and force pitchers to work hard for outs. This helps the rest of the lineup, especially when Yoshida hits higher in the order. 5’8” Yoshida also boasts a 42% hard hit rate and a max exit velocity around 122 MPH so far. His spray charts suggest he can hit authoritatively to all fields which makes it hard to shift or otherwise plan a way to get him out. He is in the 98th percentile of strikeout rate and 91st in whiff rate. He is the epitome of “see ball, hit ball”, and he can hit it hard for a little guy as he is in the 80th percentile of max exit velocity and 71st of xSLG.
To those who’ve seen him in Japan, none of this is surprising. This is what he was there also; an infuriatingly tough out with pop to all fields who absolutely rips fastballs (.388 BA versus fastballs compared to .375 for Luis Arraez) and has the contact skills and plate discipline to spoil good breaking balls. His 1.4 WAR is weighed down by his defense which has been below average even in Japan and exacerbated by having to learn to play balls off the green monster. A 135 WRC+ a 130 OPS+ make such transgressions forgivable though so long as the Red Sox have a strong defensive center fielder. He’ll learn to navigate the green monster decently enough hopefully and his approach to hitting gives confidence that his success is sustainable enough for most if not all of that six year period. The Red Sox seem to have an answer to Hideki Matsui, 20 years later. The silence from the critics is deafening.
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