***All stats quoted are from Baseball Savant***
Here comes the boom! The Jays have made their second big splash of the off-season. The deal is Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Gabriel Moreno to Arizona for Daulton Varsho. At first glance, this seems like a lot to give up and it is. However, examining this deal closely, it helps solve quite a few problems that the Jays needed to address.
First, let us understand what the Blue Jays just gave up. Lourdes Gurriel is a solid player with a good contact rate but at this point, clearly not much power. Him for Varsho straight up would never be done especially with Gurriel being a pending free agent. The key for Arizona is Moreno. Yes, Moreno may blossom into a star in Arizona but his path was blocked at catcher and DH by the Alejandro Kirk - Danny Jansen tandem and at third base by Matt Chapman. Furthermore, it is no secret the Toronto pitchers enjoy working with Danny Jansen because of his excellent receiving skills. This is not necessarily captured on the back of baseball cards but is valuable nevertheless. He also provides enough with that bat especially given what else we have in the lineup at present. Moreno was expendable.
Now on what we get back. Varsho comes with four years of team control. He is also a player with legitimate power in his bat. He hit 27 HR last year and has achieved a greater than 110 MPH exit velocity so he can hit the ball hard. He can also run with 16 SB on a team that stole a total of 104, good for a 6th place tie among MLB teams. He is also highly versatile, easily placed at any of three outfield positions. The Blue Jays also do not lose catching depth because Varsho can catch and do it well. That said, barring injuries he will spend the bulk of his time in the outfield. His legs are a prized asset given his base stealing skills and defensive range. Looking deeper into the numbers we get a rather interesting picture of what Varsho brings to the club and therefore a better insight into why he was acquired. Varsho brings three calling cards: power, speed and excellent defense.
Regarding power, the trend across his three seasons so far is very positive. His barrel rate has gone up steadily each year to over 10 this past season and he is at the 70th percentile in barrel rate across MLB. However, his hard hit rate and average exit velocity rates are only 25th percentile. This means that when he makes solid contact, he can hit as hard as anyone but it also implies that there is plenty of bad contact still when he does make contact and contact is a bit of an issue. His batting average in 2022 was .235 and the xBA a still lower .214 so a batting title is unlikely to say the least but what we really want from him are the homers. If he hits 30+, that is more than satisfactory. He is also a dead pull hitter with 50.9% pull rate compared to an MLB average of 36.8%. This implies that he is likely to be one of the prime beneficiaries of the new shifting rules that will come into play as of the 2023 season. He is a source of left-handed hitting power that we desperately needed and if the average can climb a bit as a result of restrictions on fielding shifts then that is a nice bonus.
Varsho also adds speed to a team that was 21st in stolen bases a year ago. There is speed already on the team but as far as base stealing the Blue Jays were conservative last year. Adding Varsho will hopefully encourage a more aggressive approach, especially with the slightly larger bases that will be in use come 2023. This will turn quite a few caught stealings into successful stolen base attempts. Varsho was caught 6 times in 22 attempts but he does have a 69th percentile sprint speed among outfielders and has done sub 4.00s times going from home to first. He can definitely run and projects to benefit from the larger bases. The 16 SB are no fluke and if the Blue Jays encourage him to run he can definitely hit 20+ SB with ease.
The prime benefit Varsho brings to Toronto though is on the defensive side of the ball. His arm may be average (45th percentile) but he is an elite defender nevertheless. He ranks among the very best of the league in outs above average and outfielder jump (99th percentile and 97th percentile respectively) which fits perfectly into the ethos of run prevention that the Blue Jays are espousing. Teamed up with Kevin Kiermaier and George Springer who are both high level defenders, the Blue Jays will enjoy far superior outfield defense in 2023 compared to 2022 which should help Toronto pitchers post stronger numbers across the board.
Overall, Daulton Varsho solves two main problems. Toronto needed a left-handed power hitter with a history of mashing the right-handed pitchers that are sure to be deployed against an otherwise heavily right-handed Toronto lineup. (he is, however, a liability against lefties) He also addresses the concern around outfield defense that we saw in 2022. It is fair to expect Toronto to have a top-notch defensive outfield in 2023 which should lead to far fewer preventable hits and extra-base hits. Having a power-speed piece to incorporate into the lineup helps also. Crucially, he also comes with four years of club control over which he can be expected to improve as he is only 26. On the flip side, he does not exactly replace Teoscar Hernandez who was dealt to Seattle in a previous trade although he is an upgrade on Gurriel power-wise. He is also a low-average hitter who strikes out a ton and ranks low compared to his peers in metrics such as expected batting average and expected on-base percentage. However, he stands to benefit from some of the key rule changes coming into effect next season and if he does cash in on the larger bases and restrictions on fielding shifts a trade that raises eyebrows suddenly looks rather slick. Time will tell, but overall I think the Blue Jays will like what they get provided this is not the last of the moves and provided that Varsho himself can continue to develop his game.
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