***All stats quoted are from Baseball Savant***
The Blue Jays made their first free agent splash for the winter in the last week acquiring right-hander and Akron, OH native Chris Bassitt on a 3yr/$63MM deal. It was no secret that the Jays needed to either sign or replace Ross Stripling and they have gone ahead and done the latter.
Bassitt is coming off perhaps his strongest full season to date, posting 15 wins, a 3.42 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and a career best 167 strikeouts across 30 starts. This was done on a strong Mets team and in a highly competitive NL East. This was the continuation of two very strong campaigns in Oakland prior to an off-season trade to New York. He is now firmly established as a bona-fide major league starter.
But who is Bassitt as a pitcher? He features six pitches: fastball, sinker, slider, change-up, curve and cutter. His average fastball hovers around 93 MPH which is good for the 26th percentile. His fastball and breaking ball spin rates are not especially eye-popping either as he ranks in the 32nd and 29th percentiles respectively. His chase rate is lower still coming in at the 10th percentile. None of these suggest a pitcher who would command $21 million a season but before passing judgment look more closely.
In spite of ranking fairly low among his peers in the previously mentioned categories, Bassitt ranks very high in some key categories. Most prominently, he is in the 95th percentile in average exit velocity. (85.7 MPH) He also was in the 87 percentile for the 2022 season in hard hit percentage (% of hits coming off the bat at 95 MPH or more) and well above league average in expected batting average, barrell rate against, expected on base, and so forth. He is also quite good at not beating himself as his walk rate was in the 68th percentile in 2022.
The general takeaway is that Bassitt is crafty and knows how to pitch. His example also goes to show that the key isn't necessarily in missing bats but in missing barrels of bats. Contact isn't necessarily bad but hard contact is. And Bassitt isn't really all that bad at missing bats anyway. In spite of his low chase rate he still logged 167 K in 181.2 IP in 2022. This means he makes quality pitches that hit the strike zone. He also gets ahead a lot with an over 60% first pitch strike rate in each of the last three seasons. That is key especially in the minefield of the AL East.
There are things to watch of course though. In 2022, playing home games at the Rogers Centre he would have been expected to concede 24 HR versus the 19 he actually did. Also, a drop in velocity may hamper his effectiveness a la Hyun Jin Ryu. But he has shown he can be effective without overpowering stuff and crucially that he can also go deep into games. He logged six innings or more in 21 of 30 starts last season. He also does not have dramatic splits between lefties and righties, (somewhat more effective vs RHB though) day games and night games and so forth. Consistency was a key theme for much of last year.
In the end, the Blue Jays have a highly dependable third starter to complement the front two of Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman. A resurgence from Jose Berrios would only help things. The Jays could probably use one more starter but they should have a steady front four now. Bassitt may see his ERA rise a bit in Toronto but not dramatically as he gets an above average number of grounders and when he does induce fly balls an improved outfield defense should help things. This is a solid pickup without going overboard with the years or even the dollars really. I like this move overall.
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