The Rays are not known for dishing out big free agent contracts. Up to this winter, the largest was that $35 million deal given to Wilson Alvarez in the early days of the franchise. The large extension given to Wander Franco was also very much out of character. So when the Rays announced a 3 year, $40 million deal for Zach Eflin, the move did raise quite a few eyebrows. Not only was the largesse uncharacteristic of the notoriously frugal franchise, but Eflin's career numbers up to the end of 2022 are also decidedly unremarkable. He went into 2023 with a 36-45 record, a 4.49 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP for his career and spent the 2022 playoffs pitching out of the bullpen for the World Series bound Phillies. Given that the Rays are known for turning careers around, one had to ask what they saw in Eflin. A deep dive into his career evolution offers insight into why the Rays chose to commit to the right-hander.
Through 2022
Zach Eflin has generally operated on a six pitch repertoire featuring sinker, slider, cutter, four-seamer, change-up and curveball. The sinker (29.7% usage in 2022) has historically been his best pitch and what he uses the most. The curve (25.7%) and cutter (24.3%) also feature prominently. The other three are mainly mixed in occasionally to keep hitters off balance.
He profiles as someone who doesn't necessarily generate so much swing and miss with a swing a miss rate (22.1%) sitting 2.8% below league average. However, his 2022 barrel rate of 6% was a full percentage point below league average and ranked in the 73rd percentile. His average exit velocity against in 2022 of 85.3mph ranks in the 96th percentile which is outstanding. The main takeaway is he has generally been good at limiting hard contact of late. A further positive is that this stat has been trending down over the course of his career. Control has also been a positive in both 2021 and 2022 with him ranking among the top 10% of pitchers in BB% both seasons. (3.6% in 2021, 4.8% in 2022)
On the down side, he has been fairly hittable all through his career and has historically ranked towards the bottom 30% of pitchers in spin-rate and whiff related stats. However, the consistent loud contact he was surrendering earlier in his career has dismissed steadily as he's become progressively more effective. His numbers were no doubt also being hurt by pitching home games in one of the most hitter friendly ballparks.
Year-by-year trends with Eflin are very positive. His average exit velocity against has trended down nicely over the years and his walk rate no longer exceeds 6% as it did earlier in his career. In 2022, he recorded the best wOBA and lowest hard hit rate of his career with an xERA of just 3.27. If that had been his real ERA, that would make for a fine season. Alas, he was a bit unlucky in 2022 with a real ERA of 4.04. His strikeout rate did take a dive also to 20.8%.
What We See So Far in 2023
In the regular season, we only have one start to go on at the time of writing so I won't quote any counting stats. Spring training can usually be taken with a grain of salt also. That said, we do have some metrics that show that the Rays are starting to work their magic on their new investment.
I follow a player development analyst named Lance Brozdowski on Twitter and he provides some rather interesting insights on pitchers in particular. On Eflin, he has noted important changes to his change-up and his curve that have made these two pitches more formidable weapons in his arsenal.
On the change-up, Brozdowski noted that while Eflin was throwing it a couple of mph slower than before, he was generating a 10" vertical break on it. It led to six whiffs out the seven times hitters offered at it. Brozdowski notes that in 2022, the same pitch had an 8" iVB. His theory on this is that the Rays have likely tweaked his grip on the pitch to make it more similar to the one Patrick Sandoval throws. Now there is a whole emerging science on how to adjust finger pressure on the ball to generate optimal spin and therefore movement. However, teams are still a bit cagey about divulging this seam data to the wider public.
The curve is another interesting development. In his last start, it showed a further 1.5" sweep and 3" break compared to 2022 and a slight increase in velocity. Brozdowski also notes a 1.5" increase in drip to his sinker. He offers that these changes may be a slight drop in Eflin's release point versus 2022.
Looking Forward
The first thing to watch with Eflin is if these subtle changes in pitch movement persist in future starts. If yes, then expect strong results going forward. If he was able to put together a nice 2022 with about league average movement on his pitches, improvements here and the unfamiliarity of many AL hitters with him make him a promising pick in fantasy leagues. He has already been included on multiple lists of sleeper picks going into 2023.
Another thing to watch is how the Rays manage his workload. He only went five innings in his debut and threw 74 pitches. He will likely go 80-90 in his next start and probably build from there. The Rays also have a deep bullpen and deploy it aggressively so Eflin will likely not surpass six innings all that often. They don't need him to though and given that he does have an injury history, they will likely watch his workload carefully. That said, he is a strike thrower who limits walks and this should help him move through innings fairly quickly when he's got his best stuff.
The Rays are also a fundamentally sound team that place great emphasis on strong defense. And it is worth noting that they are especially good with outfield defense so for a pitcher like Eflin who historically has had a flyback rate on the higher side, this is good news. His improved sinker and likely heavier use of it will likely lead to more grounders than in the past which a strong defensive infield can help with. This should bridge the rather large gap we saw last year between his xERA and his actual ERA.
Ultimately, Eflin has come to the right place if he wants to further his career. The Rays have a history now of turning around careers and helping guys find another gear. His new teammates Jeffery Springs and Jason Adam are great examples of this. Their data driven approach to things will give him powerful insights on how to reach his full potential that may have eluded him in Philadelphia. This may be the strongest Rays team yet also, with a nice combination of power, speed, defense, depth and excellent pitching that will threaten a division title in a highly competitive AL East.
The Eno Sarris Pitching+ model has Eflin ranked at #65 among starters in MLB for 2023. It predicts him to post a solid 3.49 ERA across 144 innings with a 22.7% K-rate and rank above league average in pitch quality and especially location. If that is what he does, he should justify the rumblings of being a good sleeper pick in fantasy, especially in AL only formats. Given the people around him in his new organization though, he may just outperform even that.
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