So where do they go from here? An off-season that had promised to be fast-paced and agressive has so far been anything but. The Blue Jays have not landed any major free agents. They were not able to land Tomoyuki Sugano, Francisco Lindor or most recently D.J. LaMahieu. This has resulted in an avalanche of social media frustration with the team brass and concern that this off-season is now a failure. After all, the biggest move so far has been the reupping of Mark Shapiro to the tune of a new five year deal. However, amidst all the negativity it is important to note that not all is lost and that many avenues do remain open to improve the team in the next four weeks before pitchers and catchers begin to report for spring training. Let us explore some of the well known pain points on the team from last season and see what options remain open for addressing them.
Starting Pitching
The biggest fish in the free agent pond remains on the loose and therefore remains the most obvious option for the Blue Jays to address their most pressing need. Trevor Bauer is the reigning NL Cy Young award winner and has been among the game’s elite pitchers for the better part of the last four years or so. He also eased some concerns following an uneasy and inconsistent 2019. Bauer also has a forward thinking approach to pitching that seems to mesh well with the forward thinking analytics team here. However, there are risks. For starters, Bauer will likely come with a $25-30MM AAV. He is also one of the more complex and independent minded personalities in the game and I can see him quickly becoming frustrated with Charlie Montoyo’s quick hooks with starters and fans in what is a fairly left leaning city. Lastly, there is the transition from a fairly weak NL Central to the highly competitive and hard hitter laden AL East. Overall, Bauer looks like a good remedy for a rotation thick of options but thin on depth outside of Hyun Jin Ryu. He will be pricey and more will be needed besides him but it would be a clear statement of intent with a strong, young core and an American League that looks pretty up for grabs as I write this article.
Alternative routes also exist to bolster the rotation wherein the 25-30MM AAV that would be spent on Bauer can be spread across two or even three pitchers. Here, the team would be looking at a Masahiro Tanaka or a Jake Oddirizzi perhaps or a bounceback candidate like James Paxton. Paxton being Canadian and having no-hit the Blue Jays in Canada is rather intriguing. This approach carries perhaps less risk than swinging big for a Bauer but these pitchers would be mid-rotation pieces at best.
Finally, there exists the trade route. There have been rumors around the Reds being open to trading Sonny Gray and or Luis Castillo. The Blue Jays have a fairly deep farm system which would allow them to pursue such an option and given Castillo is still a couple of years away from free agency, this gives them an affordable option to build with for years to come and the room payroll-wise to still add a bigger piece like Trevor Bauer or George Springer (more on him after) as a follow up. Such a route would cost the Blue Jays some key prospects but I believe that having Castillo for the ensuing three year window coinciding with a three year window with Ryu and an emerging Nate Pearson is worth the loss of some prospects. Follow it up by signing a Bauer and the Blue Jays are an immediate contender with the starting pitching needed to make and advance deep into the playoffs.
The Outfield
The outfield situation for the Blue Jays going into the season was murky. The solid play of Lourdes Gurriel in left and the breakout of Teoscar Hernandez have eased some concerns but improvements can still be made. For starters, Hernandez is still a defensive liability and Randal Grichuk is best in right field although he is more than competent in center.
The most obvious answer to bolstering the outfield situation is George Springer. He is a plus center fielder with the arm, glove and range required to play in center field. Moreover, he is a plus bat with power that gets on base consistently and underrated speed. He would give the Blue Jays a much improved defensive outfield and a true leadoff man. He will probably cost around $25MM AAV for a five or six year deal but the Blue Jays low current payroll makes such largesse affordable. The risk here is the question: “how much did the sign stealing help Springer?”. So far, it seems he’s still a legitimate top-line outfielder even after Trashcangate but a sixty game season offers little insight.
Alternatives should Springer not come do exist. The Blue Jays could opt for Marcel Ozuna for example. Ozuna offers just about all the offense that Springer would provide but comes with defensive limitations. His arm is only apt for left field and he is not a Gold Glove candidate. Eddie Rosario is another alternative after being non-tendered by the Twins; a bounce back candidate. Jackie Bradley is another option that has been linked with the Blue Jays but while he is a plus defender, he offers a weak bat.
My proposal is to go hard for Springer. He solves multiple problems at once and at age 30 probably still has a few prime or close to prime years ahead of him. He will not come cheap but the Blue Jays were hurting after the 5th or 6th spot in the lineup all year and it’s clear we need another bat at minimum. We also need a leadoff man which we didn’t really have in 2020. If they can complement with adding another bat on top of him, better still. They have the money to do it via free agency and they have the prospects to do it via trade.
The Bullpen
In 2020, Toronto had a fairly strong bullpen which was a pleasant surprise. Still, there are two important reasons to upgrade. One is that relievers’ fortunes on the mound are notoriously volatile and also that we lack a clear closer in the wake of Ken Giles’ arm injury. We missed out on Liam Hendricks but at $18MM AAV I’m not too miffed. There are more economical additions available here. Kirby Yates, Brad Hand, Trevor Rosenthal etc. The Blue Jays can add one such arm without a four year and $50MM commitment and probably should because as we have seen in recent years, fortune favors teams with strong and deep bullpens. The 2014-2015 Royals, the 2016 Indians, the 2020 Rays all had great success this way and the Blue Jays should add bullpen depth. However, this should not be done by spending large amounts of cash that should be allocated towards starting pitching and outfield help.
Conclusions
I advocate an aggressive approach in the final weeks before spring training. There are great players still available for the taking. Also, the American League seems fairly open at this time and a few aggressive moves can move up the timetable to contend by a couple of years. The Blue Jays will not be the only team to see this however and they must react quickly and decisively lest another team (looking towards the Bronx as I type this) beat them to the punch and seriously challenge the Chicago White Sox as the new power brokers of the junior circuit. He who dares wins and the Blue Jays can propel themselves into contention with a couple of key moves. The memory of 2013 must not linger too prominently in the minds of the front office. The circumstances are very different now and even that disappointment helped pave the way towards the successes of 2015-16. Whether next year or later on, aggression and daring will most likely be richly rewarded so they should go for it.
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